库兹涅茨周期
库兹涅茨周期（英語：Kuznets swing / Kuznets cycle）是西蒙·库兹涅茨在1930年发现的中等长度的经济周期，长为15–25年。[1]库兹涅茨把这些周期与人口过程联系在一起，特别是与移民流入/流出以及它们引起的建筑建设强度变化联系在一起，因此这种周期也称为“人口”或“建筑”周期。也有人将库兹涅茨周期解释为基础设施投资周期。[2]
一些现代经济评论家认为，库兹涅茨的变化反映了土地价值的18年周期。[3][4]弗雷德·哈里森认为，可以通过对土地价值征收年度税（地價稅）来平滑或完全避免这种繁荣与萧条的循环。[5]
库兹涅茨的分析受到豪锐（Howrey，1968）的批评。[6]豪锐称，库兹涅茨发现的表观上的商业周期是他选用的“滤波器”造成的假象。豪锐提出，当使用库兹涅茨滤波器时，白雜訊序列中也出出现相同的周期性模式。[7]不过，库兹涅茨的主张，即使不使用库兹涅茨滤波器也可以在全球GDP动态中发现波动。[8]
参考文献 编辑
- ^ Kuznets S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1930.
- ^ See, e.g., Forrester J. W. New Perspectives on Economic Growth. Alternatives to Growth – A Search for Sustainable Futures / Ed. by D. L. Meadows. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1977. P. 107–121; Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.
- ^ The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle. Cato Institute. 2010-01-22 [2020-03-31]. （原始内容存档于2018-10-26）.
- ^ Why we must halt the land cycle. Financial Times. [2020-03-31]. （原始内容存档于2020-03-17）.
- ^ Harrison, Fred. Fred Harrison: Want to get rid of boom and bust? Tax land, not income. The Guardian. 2005-04-11 [2020-03-31]. （原始内容存档于2020-05-16）.
- ^ Howrey, E. "A spectrum analysis of the long swing hypothesis." International Economic Review. 9:228-252. 1968.
- ^ Cogley, Timothy and Nason, James M. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research." in Real Business Cycles: A Reader. eds. James Hartley, Kevin Hoover, and Kevin D. Salyer. 1998. p. 636.
- ^ Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.