2011年葡萄牙立法選舉

葡萄牙在2011年6月5日舉行大選,選出全共和國議會230席議員。[5] 佩德羅·帕索斯·科埃略(Pedro Passos Coelho)領導的中間偏右社會民主黨 擊敗時任總理若瑟·蘇格拉底領導的社會黨[6] 在投票率創下歷史新低的情況下,中間偏右政黨囊括近130席席次,達總席次的56%,得票率僅達50%。而人民党持續2009年以來的態勢,創下1983年以來的最佳成績,而社民黨超越民調結果,贏得與2002年若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐相同的席次。在全國二十個選區中,佩德羅·帕索斯·科埃略拿下里斯本波爾圖法魯亞速群島等十七個選區。

2011年葡萄牙立法選舉

← 2009 2011年6月5日 2015 →

葡萄牙議會230席
獲得絕對多數需116席

  第一大黨 第二大黨
  Passos Coelho EPP2011.jpg Socrates2006-2t.jpg
领袖 佩德羅·帕索斯·科埃略 若瑟·蘇格拉底
政党 社會民主黨 社會黨
上任时间 2010年3月26日[1] 2004年9月29日[2]
代表选区 雷亞爾城[3] 布朗庫堡[4]
上届结果 81席, 29.1% 97席, 36.6%
赢得议席 108 74
议席差额 27 23
民選得票 2,159,181 1,566,347
得票率 38.7% 28.1%
得票变动 9.6% 8.5%

Portugal2011.png
各選區最高與第二高票政黨
(不包括亞速群島馬德拉

前任總理

若瑟·蘇格拉底
社會黨

新任總理

佩德羅·帕索斯·科埃略
社會民主黨

社會黨在本次選舉遭受嚴重挫敗,不僅失去11個選區,且是1991年以來首度得票率低於30%。蘇格拉底因而在選舉日當晚宣布辭去總書記。社會黨也失去他所在的布朗庫堡選區。極左派政黨左翼集團大敗,失去半數議會席次。整體而言,葡萄牙左派支持率落後右派政黨十個百分點,是1991年代社民黨阿尼巴爾·卡瓦科·席爾瓦拿下絕對多數以來的最大差距。右派政黨社民黨及人民黨取得過半席次,可以組建聯合政府。連同席爾瓦總統,自1974年康乃馨革命以來,37年來總統和總理同屬右翼。

投票率是葡萄牙史上新低紀錄,僅僅只有58%。

背景编辑

選舉制度编辑

政黨编辑

議題编辑

國外影響编辑

歐盟紓困编辑

經濟前景编辑

國際貨幣基金組織紓困编辑

民調编辑

日期 民調機構 社會黨 社會民主黨 人民黨 左翼集团 联合民主联盟 其他/未決定 差距
6/5 選舉結果 28.1%
74席
38.7%
108席
11.7%
24席
5.2%
8席
7.9%
16席
8.5%
0席
10.7%
6/5 Exit Poll - RTP1
Universidade Católica
26.0% – 30.0%
67 – 77席
37.0% – 42.0%
104 – 114席
11.0% – 14.0%
22 – 28席
5.0% – 7.0%
8 – 11席
7.0% – 9.0%
14 – 18席
5.0% – 8.0%
0 – 1席
11.0%
12.0%
6/5 Exit Poll - SIC
Eurosondagem
25.5% – 29.7%
69 – 77席
38.3% – 42.5%
102 – 109席
11.1% – 13.9%
22 – 25席
4.5% – 6.7%
7 – 10席
6.8% – 9.0%
15 – 16席
12.8%
6/5 Exit Poll - TVI
INTERCAMPUS
24.4% – 28.8%
64 – 78席
37.7% – 42.5%
107 – 121席
10.1% – 13.7%
12 – 28席
3.8% – 7.0%
4 – 12席
6.2% – 9.4%
11 – 20席
6.6% – 9.8%
0 – 1席
13.3%
13.7%
6/2 Eurosondagem 31.0% 35.5% 13.0% 6.3% 8.2% 6.0% 4.5%
5/31–6/2 Aximage 29.2% 37.4% 12.5% 6.7% 8.0% 6.2% 8.2%
6/1 Eurosondagem 31.1% 35.9% 13.0% 5.9% 7.8% 6.3% 4.8%
5/29–6/1 Aximage 30.1% 36.3% 12.4% 6.6% 8.1% 6.5% 6.2%
5/28–6/1 INTERCAMPUS 31.1% 36.5% 11.6% 6.0% 7.4% 7.3% 5.4%
5/31 Eurosondagem 31.3% 35.4% 13.4% 6.0% 7.9% 6.0% 4.1%
5/28–31 Marktest 30.1% 38.5% 9.7% 4.5% 8.5% 8.7% 8.4%
5/30 Eurosondagem 32.2% 35.5% 12.6% 6.3% 7.6% 5.8% 3.3%
25/8–29 Universidade Católica 31.0% 36.0% 11.0% 7.0% 8.0% 7.0% 5.0%
5/29 Eurosondagem 32.1% 34.7% 12.9% 6.3% 7.7% 6.3% 2.6%
5/25–29 INTERCAMPUS 32.3% 37.0% 12.7% 5.2% 7.7% 5.2% 4.7%
5/27 Eurosondagem 32.4% 33.7% 13.2% 6.4% 7.8% 6.5% 1.3%
5/26 Eurosondagem 32.3% 33.9% 13.4% 6.3% 7.9% 6.2% 1.6%
5/21–26 INTERCAMPUS 34.1% 35.8% 11.3% 6.5% 7.7% 4.5% 1.7%
5/25 Eurosondagem 32.5% 33.6% 12.8% 6.5% 8.1% 6.5% 1.1%
5/24 Eurosondagem 32.0% 33.7% 13.2% 6.7% 8.1% 6.3% 1.7%
5/23 Eurosondagem 32.6% 33.1% 13.7% 6.6% 7.6% 6.4% 0.5%
5/21–22 Universidade Católica 36.0% 36.0% 10.0% 6.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.0%
5/18–22 INTERCAMPUS 33.2% 39.6% 12.1% 5.6% 6.6% 3.0% 6.4%
5/14–18 Aximage 29.5% 31.1% 12.9% 5.2% 7.3% 14.0% 1.6%
5/11–15 INTERCAMPUS 35.4% 36.1% 12.6% 6.2% 7.5% 2.2% 0.7%
5/7–12 INTERCAMPUS 36.8% 33.9% 13.4% 6.0% 7.4% 2.4% 2.9%
5/9–10 Marktest 33.4% 39.7% 9.0% 4.8% 6.5% 6.6% 6.3%
5/4–8 INTERCAMPUS 35.1% 36.2% 10.9% 6.5% 7.7% 3.6% 1.1%
5/2–5 INTERCAMPUS 34.8% 37.0% 10.5% 7.0% 7.9% 2.8% 2.2%
4/28–5/3 Eurosondagem 32.5% 35.8% 11.1% 6.6% 7.7% 6.3% 3.3%
4/29–5/2 Aximage 28.3% 31.5% 11.2% 7.7% 9.3% 12.0% 3.2%
4/30–5/1 Universidade Católica 36.0% 34.0% 10.0% 5.0% 9.0% 6.0% 2.0%
4/14–19 Eurosondagem 32.7% 36.3% 11.3% 6.9% 7.8% 5.0% 3.6%
4/15–17 Marktest 36.1% 35.3% 7.5% 6.0% 8.1% 7.0% 0.8%
4/8–10 INTERCAMPUS 33.1% 38.7% 9.4% 7.6% 8.1% 3.1% 5.6%
4/2–3 Universidade Católica 33.0% 39.0% 7.0% 6.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0%
3/28–30 Aximage 28.4% 34.8% 10.8% 6.5% 8.5% 11.0% 6.4%
3/27–30 Eurosondagem 30.4% 37.3% 10.7% 7.7% 8.4% 5.5% 6.9%
3/24–26 INTERCAMPUS 32.8% 42.2% 8.7% 7.9% 7.1% 1.3% 9.4%
3/23:若瑟·蘇格拉底因不信任動議通過而下台,確定舉行提前選舉[7]
3/18–23 Marktest 24.5% 46.7% 6.3% 8.9% 6.7% 6.9% 22.2%
3/3–7 Aximage 27.9% 37.9% 8.9% 6.5% 10.7% 8.1% 10.0%
2/23–28 Eurosondagem 30.6% 36.9% 9.9% 7.7% 8.6% 6.3% 6.3%
2/17–23 Marktest 29.1% 47.8% 4.2% 5.9% 6.1% 6.9% 18.7%
2/3–8 Eurosondagem 29.3% 36.3% 10.2% 9.5% 9.2% 5.5% 7.0%
2/1–3 Aximage 27.8% 37.8% 9.5% 6.5% 9.3% 9.1% 10.0%
1/19–21 Eurosondagem 30.3% 37.4% 9.6% 9.3% 8.4% 5.0% 7.1%
1/16–19 INTERCAMPUS 30.8% 36.8% 5.8% 7.3% 7.1% 12.2% 6.0%
1/5–11 Eurosondagem 29.6% 37.3% 10.1% 9.0% 8.8% 5.2% 7.7%
1/3–6 Aximage 25.4% 38.3% 8.8% 7.5% 9.9% 10.1% 12.9%
2011
12/10–15 INTERCAMPUS 30.1% 41.6% 7.7% 10.7% 8.8% 1.1% 11.5%
12/5–7 Aximage 27.2% 39.8% 8.8% 7.4% 8.4% 8.4% 12.6%
12/2–7 Eurosondagem 30.3% 36.2% 9.6% 9.3% 8.4% 6.2% 5.9%
11/16–19 Marktest 26.9% 44.3% 6.9% 8.7% 6.7% 6.5% 17.4%
11/12–17 INTERCAMPUS 30.5% 39.2% 8.5% 11.0% 9.7% 1.1% 8.7%
11/4–9 Eurosondagem 30.0% 36.9% 9.3% 9.2% 8.8% 5.8% 6.9%
10/26–29 Aximage 26.5% 35.2% 9.1% 8.4% 9.8% 11.0% 8.7%
10/23–25 Universidade Católica 26.0% 40.0% 7.0% 12.0% 8.0% 7.0% 14.0%
10/19–24 Marktest 25.1% 42.0% 8.1% 9.8% 8.3% 6.7% 16.9%
10/6–12 Eurosondagem 35.3% 35.3% 8.0% 7.8% 8.4% 5.2% 0.0%
10/4–6 INTERCAMPUS 32.0% 35.2% 9.1% 10.6% 11.1% 2.0% 3.2%
10/1–4 Aximage 31.7% 30.6% 10.2% 8.6% 7.6% 11.3% 1.1%
9/14–17 Marktest 35.7% 38.0% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 2.3%
9/6–9 Aximage 33.8% 32.1% 7.9% 8.3% 8.6% 9.3% 1.7%
9/1–7 Eurosondagem 36.0% 35.8% 8.4% 7.1% 7.7% 5.0% 0.2%
7/28–8/2 Eurosondagem 35.0% 36.0% 9.0% 7.2% 8.0% 4.8% 1.0%
7/20–26 Marktest 33.3% 37.3% 7.5% 8.5% 6.8% 6.6% 4.0%
7/16–19 INTERCAMPUS 34.4% 39.2% 5.9% 9.0% 9.5% 2.0% 4.8%
7/8–11 Euroexpansão 31.7% 41.0% 3.8% 6.5% 6.3% 10.7% 9.3%
7/1–6 Eurosondagem 33.7% 36.2% 9.6% 7.7% 8.0% 4.8% 2.5%
7/1–4 Aximage 30.6% 34.9% 6.7% 8.2% 10.4% 9.2% 4.3%
6/19–21 Universidade Católica 34.0% 37.0% 6.0% 6.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0%
6/15–20 Marktest 24.1% 47.7% 6.9% 8.9% 6.0% 6.4% 23.6%
6/2–8 Eurosondagem 34.8% 34.9% 10.1% 7.7% 7.5% 5.0% 0.1%
6/1–7 Aximage 30.5% 31.6% 7.4% 9.7% 9.9% 10.9% 1.1%
5/18–20 Marktest 27.6% 43.9% 7.5% 7.7% 7.1% 6.2% 16.3%
5/13–18 Eurosondagem 36.2% 33.0% 11.3% 7.1% 7.7% 4.7% 3.2%
5/4–7 Aximage 30.2% 31.5% 8.2% 8.6% 10.4% 11.1% 1.3%
4/27–30 INTERCAMPUS 35.8% 41.6% 5.8% 7.8% 7.8% 1.2% 5.8%
4/20–25 Marktest 34.0% 39.8% 4.5% 8.3% 7.2% 6.2% 5.8%
4/8–13 Eurosondagem 36.0% 28.5% 13.1% 8.0% 8.2% 6.2% 7.5%
4/5–8 Aximage 32.2% 30.4% 10.8% 8.3% 8.7% 9.6% 1.8%
3/29:佩德羅·桑塔納·洛佩斯當選社民黨黨魁[8]
3/16–21 Marktest 35.6% 30.8% 9.9% 11.0% 6.6% 6.1% 4.8%
3/6–9 Universidade Católica 41.0% 33.0% 10.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 8.0%
3/5–9 Aximage 34.0% 25.1% 11.5% 8.9% 7.4% 13.1% 8.9%
3/4–9 Eurosondagem 36.9% 26.2% 14.8% 8.8% 8.4% 4.9% 10.7%
2/23–27 INTERCAMPUS 40.4% 34.4% 7.8% 10.1% 6.3% 1.0% 6.0%
2/16–21 Marktest 35.9% 30.9% 9.5% 10.6% 6.8% 6.3% 5.0%
2/10–13 Aximage 32.4% 26.3% 10.7% 9.2% 8.3% 13.1% 6.1%
2/4–9 Eurosondagem 38.1% 26.9% 13.6% 8.4% 8.3% 4.7% 11.2%
2/2–5 Aximage 33.8% 24.8% 12.1% 8.6% 8.7% 12.0% 9.0%
1/19–23 Marktest 40.5% 29.2% 10.2% 5.5% 8.5% 6.1% 11.3%
1/7–12 Eurosondagem 38.0% 27.4% 12.1% 9.3% 8.4% 4.8% 10.6%
1/6–11 Aximage 33.4% 26.5% 11.7% 10.0% 8.2% 10.2% 6.9%
2010
12/7–10 Aximage 32.5% 24.4% 12.0% 10.5% 7.7% 12.9% 8.1%
11/25–12/1 Eurosondagem 38.5% 26.9% 12.7% 9.2% 7.7% 5.0% 11.6%
11/17–19 Marktest 41.7% 25.6% 12.1% 8.0% 6.5% 6.1% 16.1%
11/6–8 Aximage 35.2% 27.3% 10.3% 8.8% 7.8% 10.6% 7.9%
10/29–11/3 Eurosondagem 38.8% 27.5% 12.5% 8.4% 8.0% 4.8% 11.3%
10/0–24 Marktest 42.9% 23.7% 12.5% 8.8% 6.0% 6.1% 19.2%
10/12–15 Aximage 35.3% 25.4% 9.7% 10.8% 6.0% 12.8% 9.9%
2009/9/27 選舉結果 36.6%
97席
29.1%
81席
10.4%
21席
9.8%
16席
7.9%
15席
6.2%
0席
7.5%

結果编辑

反對黨以比民調更大的差距擊敗執政黨。社民黨领袖佩德罗·帕索斯·科埃略成為總理候選人。

编辑 • 讨论 2011年6月5日葡萄牙共和國議會選舉結果
政黨 票數 % ± 議會席次 席次%/
票數%
2009 2011 ± % ±
社會民主黨 2,159,181 38.66 9.6 81 108 27 46.96 11.7 1.21
社會黨 1,566,347 28.05 8.5 97 74 23 32.17 10.0 1.15
人民黨 653,888 11.71 1.3 21 24 3 10.43 1.3 0.89
联合民主联盟 441,147 7.90 0.0 15 16 1 6.96 0.4 0.88
左翼集團 288,923 5.17 4.6 16 8 8 3.48 3.5 0.67
葡萄牙工人共產黨 62,610 1.12 0.2 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
爱护动物和自然党 57,995 1.04 0 0.00 0.0
地球黨 22,705 0.41 0.3 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
期望葡萄牙運動 21,942 0.39 0.1 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
民族更新黨 17,548 0.31 0.1 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
工黨 16,895 0.30 0.2 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
人民君主主義者黨 14,687 0.26 0.0 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
新民主黨 11,806 0.21 0.2 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
葡萄牙親生活黨 8,209 0.15 0.0 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
社會主義團結工人黨 4,572 0.08 0.0 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
大西洋民主黨 4,569 0.08 0 0.00 0.0
人道黨 3,588 0.06 0 0.00 0.0
總有效票 5,357,037 95.92 1.0 230 230 0 100.00 0.0
空白票 148,618 2.66 0.9
無效票 79,399 1.42 0.1
總和 (投票率 58.03%) 5,585,054 100.00 1.7
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições


政府組閣编辑

注釋编辑

  1. ^ Passos Coelho sucede a Ferreira Leite, Expresso, 26 March 2010. Retrieved 4 April 2011.
  2. ^ 存档副本. [2012-04-08]. (原始内容存档于2012-03-12). ", Público, 29 September 2004. Retrieved 4 April 2011.
  3. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  4. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  5. ^ Taylor, Simon. Portugal to hold election on 5 June. Europeanvoice.com. [2011-05-14]. 
  6. ^ "Portugal PM quits after losing austerity vote", Al Jazeera, 23 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
  7. ^ "José Sócrates demitiu-se 互联网档案馆存檔,存档日期2011-04-25.", Sol, 23 March 2011. Retrieved 31 August 2011.
  8. ^ Sá, Paula; Coelho, Hugo Filipe; Mangas, Francisco; "Passos esmagador obtém garantia de união interna 互联网档案馆存檔,存档日期2011-09-28.", Diário de Notícias, 27 March 2010. Retrieved 27 March 2011.

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