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User:庄乐遥/美国总统支持率

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美国总统支持率调查由美国民调先驱乔治·盖洛普首创于1930年代后期（约1937年），以评估美国总统任内公众的支持率。该支持率（%）指通过民调程序得出的支持人数在总样本人数中的占比。通常，该民调问卷中会询问受访者是否支持总统。
比如：

你是否支持唐纳德·特朗普的总统工作？[1]

与绝大多数民调一样，由于存在许多不科学的民调系统，此项民调结果可能不准确（比如网络自选民意调查），但统计学家们普遍接受该调查以作为总统任期内的民意反映之一。
2018年，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在共和党人中获得了约75%~90%的支持率，在民主党人中获得了5%~10%的支持率。[1]根据盖洛普民调结果，截至2019年，47%的美国人是“民主党人或民主派人士”，42%的美国人是“共和党人或共和派人士”。[2]

唐纳德·特朗普总统 编辑

主条目：关于唐纳德·特朗普政府的民意调查（英语：Opinion polling on the Donald Trump administration）

Most recent polls for President Donald Trump[3][4][5]

Polling group Date Approval Disapproval Unsure Net +/− Sample size[5] Population[5][6]
YouGov[7] July 5–7, 2020 43% 50% 7% –7% 1,000 All adults
Rasmussen Reports [a][10] July 2–6, 2020 45% 53% 2% –8% 1,500 Likely voters
RMG Research[b][11] July 2–4, 2020 39% 58% 3% –19% 1,200 Registered voters
Morning Consult[12] June 30–July 3, 2020 39% 59% 2% –20% 2,011 Registered voters
Research Co.[13] July 1–2, 2020 40% 56% 4% –16% 1,200 All adults
Reuters/Ipsos[14] June 29–30, 2020 39% 57% 4% –18% 1,115 All adults
IBD/TIPP[15] June 27–30, 2020 39% 56% 5% –17% 1,213 All adults
Monmouth[16] June 26–30, 2020 41% 53% 6% –12% 867 All adults
Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research)[17] June 25–30, 2020 43% 56% 1% –13% 1,204 Registered voters
Gallup Poll[18] June 8–30, 2020 38% 57%[5] 5% –19% 1,016 All adults
Suffolk/USA Today[19] June 25–29, 2020 40% 58% 2%[c] –18% 1,000 Registered voters
Change Research/CNBC[20] June 26–28, 2020 43% 57% 0% –14% 1,663 Likely voters
Hart Research Associates[d][21] June 22–28, 2020 41% 59% 0% –18% 1,000 Registered voters
Public Policy Polling (D)[22] June 25–26, 2020 42% 54% 4% –12% 996 Registered voters
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist[23] June 22–24, 2020 40% 58% 2% –18% 1,640 All adults
The New York Times/Siena College[24] June 17–22, 2020 41% 56% 3% –15% 1,337 Registered voters
Politico/Morning Consult[25] June 19–21, 2020 39% 58% 3% –19% 1,988 Registered voters
American Research Group[26] June 17–20, 2020 38% 58% 4% –20% 1,100 All adults
Harris Poll[27] June 17–18, 2020 43% 57% 0% –14% 1,886 Registered voters
Fox News[e][28] June 13–16, 2020 44% 55% 1% –11% 1,343 Registered voters
Quinnipiac University[29] June 11–15, 2020 42% 55% 3% –13% 1,332 Registered voters
Kaiser Family Foundation[f][30] June 8–14, 2020 40% 56% 3% −16% 1,296 All adults
近期关于唐纳德·特朗普总统的民意调查[3][31][5]
民调机构 时间 支持率 反对率 摇摆 净 +/- 样本量[5] 样本范围[5][32]
拉斯穆森报导[33] 2020年4月1~5日 44% 53% 3% -9% ≈1,500 活跃选民
益普索/路透社[34] 2020年三月30~31日 44% 51% 5% -7% 1,114 所有成年人
凯撒家庭基金会（英语：Kaiser Family Foundation）[f][35] 2020年3月25~30日 48% 49% 2% -1% 1,226 所有成年人
ABC新闻/华盛顿邮报[g][36] 2020年3月22~25日 48% 46% 6% +2% 1,003 所有成年人
福克斯新闻频道 [h][37] 2020年3月21~24日 48% 51% 1% -3% 1,011 注册选民
蒙莫斯大学民意调查[38] 2020年3月18~22日 46% 48% 6% -2% 851 所有成年人
盖洛普民意测验[i][39] 2020年3月13~22日 49% 45% 6% +4% 1,020 所有成年人
NPR/PBS新闻一小时/马里斯特（英语：Maristoll）[40] 2020年3月13~14日 43% 50% 7% -7% 835 所有成年人
NBC新闻/华尔街日报[j][41] 2020年3月11~14日 46% 51% 3% -5% 900 注册选民
昆尼皮亚克大学民调[42] 2020年3月5~8日 41% 54% 5% -14% 1,261 注册选民
CNN[k][43] 2020年3月4~7日 43% 53% 4% -10% 1,211 所有成年人
CBS新闻 [f][44] 2020年1月26~29日 43% 51% 6% -8% 1,202 所有成年人

历届对比 编辑

1937年至今，盖洛普民意测验对每位总统的认可度[45][46][47][l]
届 总统 最高支持率 最低支持率 高 –
低 		最高反对率 最高净支持率 最低净支持率 卸任时支持率 平均
支持率[45] 		每年
民调
45[48][49][50][51] 特朗普 49 (2020-01-29, 2020-02-20)[48] 35 (2017-8-27, 2017-10-29, 2017-12-03, 2017-12-17)[48] 14 60 (2017-8-27, 2017-10-29, 2017-12-17, 2018-11-25) [48] 1 (2017-01-24, 2020-01-29) [48] −29 (2017-10-29, 2017-12-01) [48] 40[48]
44[52][53] 奥巴马 67 (2009-01-25) 40 (2014-09-05)[m] 27 55 (2014-06-22, 2014-10-12) 56 (2009-01-23, 2009-01-24) −18 (2014-10-10) 59 (2017-01-19) 47.9 48.4
43[54] 小布什 90 (2001-9-21) 25 (2008-10-05, 2008-10-12, 2008-11-02) 65 71 (2008-10-10) 83 (2001-09-22) −46 (2008-10-12) 34 (2009-01-11) 49.4 33.7
42[55] 克林顿 73 (1998-12-19) 37 (1993-06-06) 36 54 (1994-09-07) 45 (2000-12-17) −14 (1994-09-07) 66 (2001-01-14) 55.1 28.5
41[56] 老布什 89 (1991-02-28) 29 (1992-08-02, 1992-10-13) 60 60 (1992-07-31) 82 (1991-03-03) −30 (1992-08-02, 1992-10-13) 56 (1993-01-11) 60.9 39.5
40[57] 里根 71 (1986-01-30) 35 (1983-01-31) 36 56 (1983-01-28) 52 (1986-01-30) −21(1983-01-31) 63 (1988-12-29) 52.8 37.0
39[58] 卡特 74 (1977-03-15) 28 (1979-06-26, 1979-10-02) 46 59 (1979-06-26) 66 (1977-03-15) −31 (1979-06-26) 34 (1980-12-08) 45.5 22.7
38[59] 福特 70 (1974-08-13) 36 (1975-03-25) 34 46 (1975-04-15, 1975-11-18) 67 (1974-08-13) −7 (1975-02-25, 1975-03-25, 1975-04-15) 53 (1976-12-13) 47.2 14.7
37[60] 尼克松 66 (1973-01-23) 24 (1974-01-02) 42 66 (1974-08-05) 57 (1969-03-17) −42 (1974-08-05) 24 (1974-08-05) 49.1 17.7
36[61] 林登·约翰逊 79 (1964-03-05) 34 (1968-08-12) 45 52 (1968-08-12) 75 (1963-12-10) −18 (1968-08-12) 49 (1969-01-06) 55.1 15.3
35[62] 肯尼迪 83 (1962-03-05) 56 (1963-09-10) 27 30 (1963-09-12, 1963-11-08) 78 (1962-03-05) 27 (1963-09-10) 58 (1963-11-13) 70.1 13.7
34[63] 艾森豪威尔 77 (1955-11-22, 1956-12-19) 47 (1958-03-25) 30 36 (1958-03-25) 66 (1953-04-02, 1956-12-19) 12 (1958-03-25) 59 (1960-12-13) 65.0 14.4
33[64] 杜鲁门 87 (1945-08-22) 22 (1951-11-16, 1952-02-14) 65 67 (1952-01-06) 85 (1945-08-22) −43 (1952-01-04) 32 (1952-12-16) 45.4 8.4
32[65] 富兰克林·罗斯福 83 (1942-01-23) 48 (1939-08-18) 35 46 (1938-05-22, 1938-05-29, 1938-11-07) 73 (1942-01-23) 65 (1943-12-15) 63

支持率曲线图 编辑

盖洛普民意检测曲线图[n]

另行参阅 编辑

其他网站 编辑

注释 编辑

  1. ^ Polls with a notable pro-Trump/Republican bias.[8][9]
  2. ^ conducted by Scott Rasmussen, founder and President of Rasmussen Reports until 2013.
  3. ^ "Undecided" with 1.7%; "Refused" with 0.3%
  4. ^ Conducted in conjunction with Protect Our Care, a pro-Obamacare organization.
  5. ^ Conducted by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).
  6. ^ 6.0 6.1 6.2 实际执行机构：SSRS of Glen Mills, Pennsylvania.
  7. ^ 实际执行机构： Abt Associates of Rockville, MD.
  8. ^ 实际执行机构： Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).
  9. ^ 月平均值
  10. ^ 实际执行机构： Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R).
  11. ^ 实际执行机构：SSRS.
  12. ^ 由于在克林顿总统前没有其他民意调查，故仅列举了盖洛普民调结果。
  13. ^ 三日均值数据的最后8次，有交叉。
  14. ^ 绿为支持，黄为摇摆，红为反对。

参考资料 编辑

  1. ^ 1.0 1.1 Presidential Approval Ratings – Donald Trump. Gallup. [February 13, 2017]. 
  2. ^ Jeffrey M. Jones. U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era. Gallup. 7 January 2020 [23 January 2020]. 
  3. ^ 3.0 3.1 President Trump: Job Ratings. PollingReport.com. [August 23, 2019].  引证错误：带有name属性“PROTRUMP”的<ref>标签用不同内容定义了多次
  4. ^ President Trump Job Approval. RealClearPolitics. [December 26, 2018]. 
  5. ^ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 How (un)popular is Donald Trump?. fivethirtyeight.com. [December 26, 2018].  引证错误：带有name属性“Comparing”的<ref>标签用不同内容定义了多次
  6. ^ Kennedy, Courtney; Deane, Claudia. A Basic Question when Reading a Poll: Does It Include or Exclude Nonvoters?. Pew Research Center. February 16, 2017. 
  7. ^ Daily Survey: Trump Tweets (PDF). June 26, 2020. 
  8. ^ Blake, Aaron. Rasmussen: The GOP's Cure for the Common Poll. The Washington Post. September 17, 2012. 
  9. ^ Pollster: Rasmussen Research Has a pro-GOP Bias. The Hill. September 10, 2018. 
  10. ^ Trump Approval Index History. June 21, 2020. 
  11. ^ Rasmussen, Scott. President Trump's Job Approval: 39%. ScottRasmussen.com. July 7, 2020. 
  12. ^ National Tracking Poll #2006150 (PDF). June 30 - July 3, 2020. 
  13. ^ Canseco, Mario. Approval Rating for Trump Falls to 40% in the United States. July 6, 2020. 
  14. ^ Core Political Data (PDF). July 1, 2020. 
  15. ^ Graham, Jed. Joe Biden Extends Lead As Coronavirus, Protests Sink President Trump Job Approval: IBD/TIPP Poll. Investor's Business Daily. July 1, 2020. 
  16. ^ National: COVID Worries Rise Slightly (PDF). July 1, 2020. 
  17. ^ Navigator Daily Tracker (PDF). June 25–30, 2020. 
  18. ^ Jones, Jeffrey. Trump's Job Approval Rating Steady at Lower Level. July 6, 2020. 
  19. ^ Suffolk University/USA TODAY: Final (PDF). June 25–29, 2020. 
  20. ^ States of Play: Battleground & National Surveys on COVID-19, Trump & the Economy. June 30, 2020. 
  21. ^ Study #12961: POC National Online Survey (PDF). June 22–28, 2020. 
  22. ^ National Survey Results (PDF). June 25–26, 2020. 
  23. ^ NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll (PDF). June 24, 2020. 
  24. ^ US0620 Crosstabs062420.xlsx (PDF). June 17–22, 2020. 
  25. ^ National tracking Poll #2006102. June 19–21, 2020. 
  26. ^ Trump Job Approval Unchanged. June 22, 2020. 
  27. ^ Harvard Caps: Harris Poll (PDF). June 17–18, 2020. 
  28. ^ Fox News Poll (PDF). June 19, 2020. 
  29. ^ Biden Ahead Of Trump By 8 Points In Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds, Nearly 6 In 10 Support Vote By Mail In November. June 18, 2020. 
  30. ^ KFF Health Tracking Poll – June 2020 (PDF). June 26, 2020. 
  31. ^ President Trump Job Approval. RealClearPolitics. [December 26, 2018]. 
  32. ^ President Trump Job Approval. 
  33. ^ Trump Approval Index History. [November 23, 2018]. 
  34. ^ Trump approval at reuters.com. [June 17, 2017]. 
  35. ^ KFF Health Tracking Poll – Early April 2020 (PDF). April 2, 2020. 
  36. ^ Washington Post-ABC News poll March 22-25, 2020. March 29, 2020. 
  37. ^ Fox News Poll. March 27, 2020. 
  38. ^ Governors Get High Marks for Handling COVID-19 Crisis. March 23, 2020. 
  39. ^ Trump Job Approval. [January 10, 2018]. 
  40. ^ NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of 835 National Adults (PDF). March 17, 2020. 
  41. ^ NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey. March 20, 2020. 
  42. ^ Biden Crushes Sanders In Democratic Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; More Disapprove Of Trump's Response To Coronavirus. March 9, 2020. 
  43. ^ CNN March 2020 (PDF). March 9, 2020. 
  44. ^ Most Feel Good About the Economy, But Not the State of the Country. January 31, 2020. 
  45. ^ 45.0 45.1 Presidential Approval Ratings – Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends. Gallup. [August 16, 2011]. 
  46. ^ Lydia Saad. Trump's Approval Rating Unusually Low, Unusually Early. Gallup. March 29, 2017 [April 1, 2017]. 
  47. ^ The American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara.
  48. ^ 48.0 48.1 48.2 48.3 48.4 48.5 48.6 Gallup Daily: Trump Job Approval. Gallup. [January 27, 2017]. 
  49. ^ Trump Job Approval (Weekly). Gallup. [January 22, 2018]. 
  50. ^ Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump. Gallup. [October 9, 2018] （美国英语）. 
  51. ^ Jeffrey M. Jones. Trump's Fifth-Quarter Job Approval Up; Still Historically Low. Gallup. April 24, 2018. 
  52. ^ Graphical display and numbers of Gallup "daily tracking" polls
  53. ^ Presidential Approval Ratings -- Barack Obama. 
  54. ^ Gallup.com. Gallup.com. [August 16, 2011]. 
  55. ^ Presidential Approval Ratings -- Bill Clinton. gallup.com. [January 26, 2017]. 
  56. ^ "Presidential Job Approval for George H. W. Bush". American Presidency Project.
  57. ^ "Presidential Job Approval for Ronald Reagan". American Presidency Project.
  58. ^ "Presidential Job Approval for Jimmy Carter". American Presidency Project.
  59. ^ "Presidential Job Approval for Gerald Ford". American Presidency Project.
  60. ^ "Presidential Job Approval for Richard Nixon". American Presidency Project.
  61. ^ "Presidential Job Approval for Lyndon B. Johnson". American Presidency Project.
  62. ^ "Presidential Job Approval for John F. Kennedy". American Presidency Project.
  63. ^ Presidential Job Approval for "Dwight D. Eisenhower". American Presidency Project.
  64. ^ "Presidential Job Approval for Harry S. Truman". American Presidency Project.
  65. ^ "Presidential Job Approval for Franklin D. Roosevelt". American Presidency Project.
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