用戶:Richard923888/2023年–2024年荷蘭內閣組建

A process of cabinet formation is taking place following the Dutch general election of 22 November 2023.

The first scout Gom van Strien resigned before the first talks due to suspicions of fraud, unrelated to the formation. Ronald Plasterk succeeded him. New Social Contract (NSC) and the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) were reluctant to govern with the largest party, Party for Freedom (PVV), because some of PVV's positions were contrary to the rule of law. As informateur, Plasterk held talks with those parties plus the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) about the rule of law and, subsequently, other topics. Tensions increased after a month and a half due to disagreements over finances and on 6 February NSC withdrew from the formation talks citing these issues.

Subsequently, Kim Putters (PvdA) was appointed informateur in February to investigate what form a cabinet should take. He concluded that it was possible to form a variant of an extra-parliamentary cabinet between PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB. Under the guidance of informateurs Elbert Dijkgraaf and Richard van Zwol, the four parties reached an agreement on 15 May. On 23 May the selection of ministers began under formateur Van Zwol. On 28 May, civil servant Dick Schoof (independent) was nominated Prime Minister, after Plasterk, who had previously been nominated privately, had withdrawn.

Background

The previous Fourth Rutte cabinet was a coalition formed in January 2022 after the longest formation, consisting of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and Christian Union (CU). After surviving multiple crises over the regulation of nitrogen emissions, the cabinet experienced a further crisis over asylum policy. In the last round of negotiations, the VVD proposed stricter measures which were unacceptable for CU, who broke off the negotiations. Prime minister Mark Rutte therefore offered the resignation of his cabinet on 7 July 2023. This was seen by some as a powerplay by the VVD to force elections around an issue that benefited them. A few days later, Rutte announced that he would not continue as leader of VVD.

Before the elections, GroenLinks (GL) and Labour Party (PvdA) decided to enter the elections together as GroenLinks–PvdA (GL-PvdA) with European Commissioner Frans Timmermans as party leader. After much hesitation, Pieter Omtzigt, who split from CDA in 2021, formed a new party, New Social Contract (NSC).

Campaign

Composition of the elected House:

  SP: 5

  PvdD: 3

  Denk: 3

  GL-PvdA: 25

  Volt: 2

  D66: 9

  CU: 3

  NSC: 20

  VVD: 24

  CDA: 5

  BBB: 7

  JA21: 1

  SGP: 3

  PVV: 37

  FvD: 3

The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) became the largest party in the Dutch provincial elections of March 2023, and therefore in the 2023 Dutch Senate election. The party maintained its lead in the polls until the fall of the cabinet, though subsequently lost this position, partly because the nitrogen crisis was rarely discussed during the campaign. The leading position in the polls then alternated between VVD, NSC and GL-PvdA. PVV party leader Geert Wilders' more constructive tone and a successful debate at SBS6 contributed to his party taking the lead in a Peil.nl poll in the last week. This stimulated strategic voting on both the left and the right to respectively prevent or force a right-wing cabinet, from which GL-PvdA and PVV particularly benefited.

Leader of the PVV Geert Wilders, 2016

During the campaign, possible coalitions were discussed. GL-PvdA, D66, CDA and smaller parties continued to exclude the PVV. With the arrival of Dilan Yeşilgöz as party leader, the VVD did not rule out governing with the PVV for the first time since 2010. At the end of the campaign she partly reversed this, saying that she did not want to be in a cabinet in which Wilders' party was the largest. During the campaign, Omtzigt remained vague about possible cooperation with the PVV. Towards the end indicated that he was not in favour, as he viewed some of the PVV's positions as contrary to the constitution.

Election results

The PVV became the largest party in the elections with 37 seats. The coalition parties of the incumbent cabinet fell from 78 to 41 seats. Despite GL-PvdA becoming the second largest party, the left and progressive block as a whole fell from 63 to 47 seats. The three largest right-wing parties PVV, VVD and NSC got a majority of 81 seats in the House of Representatives. With only 14 seats in the Senate they were far removed from the 38 required for a majority. Supplemented with BBB, this combination resulted in 88 seats in the House and 30 in the Senate.

Scout Van Strien

Gom van Strien (PVV), 2014

On 24 November 2023, PVV Senator Gom van Strien was selected as scout, as proposed by Wilders. DENK was the only party to oppose the appointment, because they viewed PVV as undermining the rule of law. Van Strien's task was to explore "which coalition options can count on support based on the election results". Two days after the appointment, it became public that Van Strien was suspected of fraud. On 27 November, before meeting any party leaders, he resigned as scout.

Scout Plasterk

Ronald Plasterk (PvdA), 2015

Wilders requested former VVD State Secretary Fred Teeven as a scout, but met with disagreement from other parties. On 28 November 2023, former PvdA-Minister and Telegraaf columnist Ronald Plasterk was appointed as scout as proposed by Wilders. DENK again opposed the appointment as well as the Party for the Animals (PvdD). DENK also refused meeting with Plasterk.

Coalition preferences

Coalitions acceptable to voters. Based on a poll from EenVandaag (23 November 2023)

Coalition	%
PVV + VVD + NSC + BBB	60
PVV + VVD + NSC	57
GL-PvdA + VVD + NSC + D66	26
GL-PvdA + NSC + D66 + PvdD + SP + CU	24

From 29 November until 1 December, Plasterk met with the party leaders. Wilders said he wanted to form a cabinet and proposed talks with VVD, NSC and BBB. BBB leader Caroline van der Plas also preferred this combination "if Geert [Wilders] moves along a bit". This combination was supported by FVD, SGP and JA21, who were open to supporting them in the Senate. VVD and NSC were more reluctant. Yeşilgöz announced directly before Van Strien was appointed that her party was not willing to join a cabinet because of its defeat, but would provide confidence and supply to a centre-right cabinet. In doing so, VVD claimed the position of confidence and supply, which was also aspired by NSC. Most members and party prominents such as Halbe Zijlstra and Hans Hoogervorst were in favor of joining the government, but there were also party prominents such as Jozias van Aartsen, Frans Weisglas and Ed Nijpels who were against cooperation with the PVV. Omtzigt said to Plasterk that he was not ready to negotiate with the PVV because of concerns around rule of law. He proposed that two informateur would explore which solutions parties wanted for problems.

PvdD leader Esther Ouwehand wanted to hand the initiative to GL-PvdA and NSC and said that a coalition was possible "with many small parties in it, probably including ours". The other parties saw no role for themselves in this first phase. Timmermans called a cabinet with GL-PvdA and PVV a "no-go" and considered it "extremely unlikely" that there would be an opportunity for GL-PvdA to join a cabinet.

After meeting the first meetings, Plasterk notified the House he would need another week. Between 4 and 7 December he met with pairs of party leaders from PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB. He met twice with Wilders and Omtzigt. After the first, they said that "some air had been cleared" between them.

Advice

On 11 December 2023, Plasterk handed his report to the Speaker of the House of Representatives. In it he recommended appointing an informateur to investigate whether an agreement can be reached between the PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB "on a joint baseline for guaranteeing the Constitution, fundamental rights and the democratic rule of law". The informateur should then explore whether there is a realistic prospect that the parties can reach agreement on a number of issues, including migration, good governance, climate, the nitrogen crisis and social security.

Informateur Plasterk

During the debate on 13 December 2023 about the advice, the House appointed Plasterk as informateur. He started talks with the parties the next day. The parties agreed to keep 'radio silence'. The party leaders were accompanied by Sophie Hermans and Eelco Heinen (VVD), Eddy van Hijum (NSC), Mona Keijzer and Henk Vermeer (BBB), Gidi Markuszower and Fleur Agema (PVV).

Over the following weeks - with an interruption of the Christmas recess - the parties discussed the rule of law. During this time, Wilders withdrew a number of bills which, according to the Council of State, may have been contrary to the rule of law. On 10 January 2024, at the end of a three-day meeting on the De Zwaluwenberg estate, the parties concluded their discussions, agreeing, among other things, that the rule of law, the Constitution, judicial decisions and international treaties would be respected. Despite the agreement, the NSC told the other negotiators that it would only provide supply and confidence to a cabinet because of the 'rule of law distance' with the PVV.

Party leader of NSC Pieter Omtzigt, 2021

Another topic of discussion was whether the parties could reach an agreement over finances. The parties were informed by the Ministry of Finance, De Nederlandsche Bank and the Central Planning Bureau, who had previously recommended cuts of 17 billion. VVD and NSC argued in favour of strict budget discipline, while BBB and PVV opposed major cuts. In addition, there were concerns about BBB's financial knowledge. At Omtzigt's insistence, all ministries were asked to inform the negotiators about possible financial setbacks.

Collapse of the negotiations

On 5 February, the negotiators met without Plasterk for an away-day at the Ministry of Justice and Security, where Yeşilgöz was minister. The atmosphere had deteriorated in the days before, as all of the parties publicly attacked each other. Omtzigt was hesitant and made "retreating movements" that day. A day later, the letters requested by Omtzigt were shared. Omtzigt argued that Plasterk had shared this information too late, and criticized the attitude of the other parties towards the financial risks.

Omtzigt left the meeting in the afternoon and returned to his hotel. He invited three journalists to inform them, under embargo, that this formation round was over for NSC. Before the embargo was over, and before he had informed the other parties, NSC's letter to its members about the news was leaked. Omtzigt therefore informed the co-negotiators and informateur via an app message. Plasterk invited NSC to the rest of the meetings that week, but Omtzigt did not respond.

On 12 February, Plasterk handed his report over to Speaker of the House of Representatives Martin Bosma. In the report, Plasterk concluded that despite NSC's departure, an agreement between the four parties "is not excluded and can very well be achieved". He advised appointing a new informateur to determine whether the parties could reach an agreement. During the debate on the final report on 14 February, Plasterk mentioned that Omtzigt had used the informateur's official car on 6 February to be driven to the hotel where he briefed the journalists.

Informateur Putters

Kim Putters (PvdA), 2015

During the debate on 14 February 2024, Kim Putters, chairman of the Social and Economic Council and former PvdA senator, was appointed as informateur, based on a proposal by Wilders. His assignment was to investigate within four weeks what form a cabinet should take, such as a minority or extra-parliamentary cabinet. During the spring recess, Putters consulted with experts, such as former informateur Herman Tjeenk Willink and vice-president of the Council of State Thom de Graaf, and then invited all parliamentary leaders. From those conversations he concluded that neither a majority cabinet nor a cabinet with confidence and supply was possible, and began investigating whether it was possible to form an extra-parliamentary cabinet with PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB.

These four parties then entered into discussions with the informateur, alone and in pairs. On 11 and 12 March, the four party leaders met again at the De Zwaluwenberg estate. They again concluded that a majority cabinet with the parties was not possible, and therefore agreed to form a variant of an extra-parliamentary cabinet, a so-called 'program cabinet'. Such a program cabinet must have an agreement in outline, which is then elaborated by the cabinet. The cabinet must contain ministers both with and without "political anchorage". The party leaders should not sit in such a cabinet, but remain in the House of Representatives. Wilders would therefore, at the insistence of NSC, not become prime minister. On 14 March, Putters submitted his advice with the recommendation to have the four parties substantively negotiate such a program cabinet.

Informateurs Dijkgraaf and Van Zwol

Informateur Elbert Dijkgraaf, 2016

During the debate on 20 March with Putters, the House of Representatives agreed to Wilders' proposal to appoint former SGP MP Elbert Dijkgraaf and member of the Council of State and member of CDA Richard van Zwol to be appointed as informateurs for the negotiations between PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB. In the first two-week phase, they discussed all the topics which Putters had indicated would require broad agreement. A number of topics such as climate and education were added. After this round, they discussed the topics in depth.

Finances again proved to be a bottleneck, making negotiations difficult. Unusually for a negotiation phase, the informateurs held separate discussions with the parties between 4 and 10 April. A week later, migration emerged as a further bottleneck. On 15 April, Wilders left a meeting early, stating that he had received insufficient support from the other parties to limit the number of asylum seekers.

The negotiatiors of the four parties reached a deal on 15 May, which the four parliamentary groups agreed to late in the evening. At night, the informateurs then handed over their final report to the Speaker of the House.

Prime ministerial candidate Plasterk

Wilders suggested nominating Plasterk as Prime Minister, though this was blocked by Omtzigt, due to the negative relationship between them since Plasterk's informateurship, and due to a possible integrity violation surrounding patents which came to light during the formation. It was thus recommended to appoint Van Zwol as formateur. On 17 May, a letter from Plasterk appeared in the De Telegraaf, in which he apologized for mentioning Omtzigt's use of his official car. On 20 May Plasterk renounced his candidacy because of the accusations.

Formateur Van Zwol

Dick Schoof, nominated as prime minister in 2024 (photo from 2016).

On 22 May, Richard van Zwol was appointed formateur. Wilders first approached at least former formateur Putters for prime minister, but he declined. Wilders then approached the civil servant Dick Schoof (independent), who was nominated on 28 May as prime minister on behalf of the four parties.

External links

• Official website of the spokesperson for the cabinet formation