天际线扫描地平线扫描剑桥大学生物学家William Sutherland在2008年提出的对环境生物多样性问题的一种未来学研究方法[1][2]

天际线扫描方法是基于德尔菲技术(Delphi Technique)改进的系统预测方法。从2009年开始每年进行年度全球环境保护的天际线扫描。方法是每年组成一个20人的专家组,每个专家再独立与其他人一起提出两个以上的全球性的环境保护问题,并提供一个对问题简单的描述。然后由每个专家对所有问题进行评议打分(1-1000分),并选出35个得分最高的问题,以及一些认为值得讨论的问题。在提交给专家组评议后,重新打分选出15个得分最高问题,作为年度全球环境保护问题[1]

历年全球环境保护天际线扫描问题

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参考文献

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  2. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Bailey, Mark J.; Bainbridge, Ian P.; Brereton, Tom; Dick, Jaimie T. A.; Drewitt, Joanna; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Dusic, Nicholas R.; Freckleton, Robert P.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gilder, Pam M.; Green, Rhys E.; Heathwaite, A. Louise; Johnson, Sally M.; Macdonald, David W.; Mitchell, Roger; Osborn, Daniel; Owen, Roger P.; Pretty, Jules; Prior, Stephanie V.; Prosser, Havard; Pullin, Andrew S.; Rose, Paul; Stott, Andrew; Tew, Tom; Thomas, Chris D.; Thompson, Des B. A.; Vickery, Juliet A.; Walker, Matt; Walmsley, Clive; Warrington, Stuart; Watkinson, Andrew R.; Williams, Rich J.; Woodroffe, Rosie; Woodroof, Harry J. PRIORITY CONTRIBUTION: Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2007-10-09, 45 (3): 821–833. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x.  无效|doi-access=subscription (帮助)
  3. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Daszak, Peter; Depledge, Michael H.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Garthwaite, Rachel; Gibbons, David W.; De Lurio, Jennifer; Impey, Andrew J.; Lickorish, Fiona; Lindenmayer, David; Madgwick, Jane; Margerison, Ceri; Maynard, Trevor; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Prior, Stephanie; Redford, Kent H.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2010-01, 25 (1): 1–7. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.003.  无效|doi-access=subscription (帮助)
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